FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Muertasignature
tOfu · 28 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 18 games
Chenoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
Doomoften banned
Ace · 15 games
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
Lichsignature
Seleri · 15 games
Mirana
tOfu · 15 games
Morphlingsignature
Watson · 15 games
Yakult Brothers
Clockwerksignature
BoBoKa · 29 games
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 22 games
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 21 game
Invokersignature
Emo · 19 games
Pucksignature
Emo · 18 games
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 17 games
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
535 picks · 735 bans
Clockwerk
498 picks · 570 bans
Batrider
493 picks · 612 bans
Tiny
486 picks · 576 bans
Muerta
480 picks · 413 bans
Gyrocopter
447 picks · 803 bans
Magnus
445 picks · 983 bans
Lion
403 picks · 230 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:5
Gaimin Gladiators 56%Yakult Brothers 44%
The model gave 56% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 34:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinWatson
TerrorbladeAme
LycanAce
Storm SpiritEmo
Ember SpiritQuinn
Tinyzeal
Nyx AssassintOfu
Phoenix天命
WarlockSeleri
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
Game 2prediction correct28:12
Gaimin Gladiators 57%Yakult Brothers 43%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 23:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MagnusAce
LinaEmo
SniperQuinn
SpectreAme
SlarkWatson
Abaddonzeal
MuertatOfu
BatriderBoBoKa
Ogre MagiSeleri
Phoenix天命
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 60%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2