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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Yakult Brotherswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 12 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 10 games
60%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 9 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 9 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MikSa` · 8 games
75%
Invoker
Invokersignature
xn丶e · 8 games
63%

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 21 game
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 21 game
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 19 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 18 games
72%
Muerta
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 17 games
65%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
532 picks · 727 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
493 picks · 575 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
487 picks · 612 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
483 picks · 411 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
477 picks · 575 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
446 picks · 802 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
443 picks · 979 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
400 picks · 230 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:24
Team Secret 46%Yakult Brothers 54%
The model gave 54% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 32:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterParker
51% · 487 games46% · 406 games
MorphlingAme
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierSupream^
50% · 632 games52% · 284 games
Storm SpiritEmo
Storm Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackMikSa`
56% · 323 games43% · 303 games
Doomzeal
Doom
Lion
LionThiolicor
57% · 363 games46% · 515 games
Batrider天命
Batrider
Elder Titan
Elder TitanPuppey
54% · 208 games45% · 505 games
ClockwerkBoBoKa
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 63%
Series resultYakult Brothers 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1