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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken N Friendsloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Chicken N Friends

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 3 games
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 3 games
33%
Muerta
Muerta
Jing · 3 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Karma丶 · 2 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Yowe · 2 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Karma丶 · 2 games
100%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Karma丶 · 2 games
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Karma丶 · 2 games
50%

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 24 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mac · 20 games
60%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Mac · 19 games
58%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 19 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Tims · 17 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 16 games
81%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Mac · 14 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
531 picks · 725 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
492 picks · 571 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
486 picks · 611 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
482 picks · 409 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
473 picks · 575 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
445 picks · 801 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
442 picks · 977 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
399 picks · 230 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:40
Chicken N Friends 35%BOOM Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 30:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinPalos
43% · 107 games55% · 145 games
LinaMac
Lina
Tiny
TinyYowe
54% · 455 games39% · 27 games
AbaddonJaCkky
Abaddon
Magnus
MagnusKarma丶
50% · 213 games49% · 84 games
Dark SeerFbz
Dark Seer
Pugna
PugnaJing
51% · 175 games56% · 345 games
ClockwerkTims
Clockwerk
46% · 349 games
BatriderJaunuel
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct23:39
Chicken N Friends 34%BOOM Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 42:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistPalos
49% · 165 games47% · 185 games
TinyJaCkky
Tiny
Puck
PuckYowe
52% · 237 games59% · 62 games
LinaMac
Lina
Night Stalker
Night StalkerKarma丶
48% · 78 games48% · 39 games
Dark SeerFbz
Dark Seer
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterJing
54% · 47 games40% · 170 games
TuskTims
Tusk
55% · 71 game
LichJaunuel
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 76%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2