FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Titanwin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EEExcel Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Titan
Grimstroke
mercy · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
Tusk
zzq · 1 game
Excel Esports
Batrideroften banned
Hara · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Manic · 1 game
Bloodseekeroften banned
Manic · 1 game
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Hara · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
生死 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
528 picks · 721 bans
Clockwerk
489 picks · 569 bans
Batrider
485 picks · 609 bans
Muerta
480 picks · 409 bans
Tiny
473 picks · 572 bans
Gyrocopter
444 picks · 799 bans
Magnus
440 picks · 976 bans
Lion
397 picks · 230 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 63%
Hero pool strength57% Excel Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Titan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:36
Titan 65%Excel Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Titan — the game was taken by Titan in 50:39.
Game 2prediction correct25:13
Titan 65%Excel Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Titan — the game was taken by Titan in 32:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteTitan · 65%
Series resultTitan 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2