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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
One Movewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 23 games
39%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 21 game
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Panto · 19 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 19 games
63%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 17 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 16 games
56%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Mirage · 16 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
OneJey · 15 games
53%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 29 games
41%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 25 games
52%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 23 games
70%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 18 games
22%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
SSS · 18 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 17 games
24%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 17 games
47%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
526 picks · 716 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
488 picks · 565 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
483 picks · 607 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
478 picks · 406 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
470 picks · 567 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
440 picks · 797 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
438 picks · 972 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
396 picks · 230 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% One Move
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total53% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:44
HULIGANI 50%One Move 50%
The model gave 50% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by One Move in 52:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
56% · 190 games49% · 37 games
BloodseekerWoE
Bloodseeker
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinv1olent-
47% · 142 games51% · 104 games
LinaDifference
Lina
Monkey King
Monkey Kingxn丶e
53% · 168 games47% · 320 games
PangolierSSS
Pangolier
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterAntares
48% · 36 games54% · 19 games
Rikinot me
Riki
Warlock
WarlockRESPECT
46% · 54 games49% · 110 games
LichRein
Lich
Game 2prediction correct49:27
HULIGANI 49%One Move 51%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 1:06:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinv1olent-
50% · 136 games52% · 141 game
LinaDifference
Lina
Magnus
MagnusAlberkaaa
50% · 202 games52% · 298 games
Dragon KnightWoE
Dragon Knight
Muerta
MuertaAntares
47% · 254 games53% · 272 games
BristlebackSSS
Bristleback
Invoker
Invokerxn丶e
48% · 160 games47% · 207 games
LichRein
Lich
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
47% · 219 games56% · 53 games
Rikinot me
Riki
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 53%
Series resultOne Move 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2