FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:0series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TGthe goal of all life is deathloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tidebound
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 7 games
Clockwerksignature
y` · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 5 games
Earthshakeroften banned
NothingToSay · 5 games
Grimstroke
pLAnet · 5 games
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
pLAnet · 5 games
Sniperoften banned
NothingToSay · 5 games
the goal of all life is death
Tinyoften banned
GaN- · 3 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
GaN- · 1 game
Huskaroften banned
GaN- · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
GaN- · 1 game
Puckoften banned
GaN- · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
526 picks · 713 bans
Clockwerk
487 picks · 564 bans
Batrider
481 picks · 606 bans
Muerta
478 picks · 405 bans
Tiny
469 picks · 566 bans
Gyrocopter
440 picks · 797 bans
Magnus
437 picks · 968 bans
Lion
395 picks · 230 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total93% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Tidebound 93%the goal of all life is death 7%
The model gave 93% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Tidebound 93%the goal of all life is death 7%
The model gave 93% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 93%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2