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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Spiky Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Excel Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spiky Gaming

Muerta
Muerta
TK · 15 games
27%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 9 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
生死 · 8 games
25%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
生死 · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
生死 · 8 games
38%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
生死 · 8 games
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
13%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
TK · 7 games
43%

Excel Esports

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
生死 · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
RedPanda · 1 game
0%
Muerta
Muerta
Hara · 1 game
0%
Oracle
Oracle
RedPanda · 1 game
0%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Hara · 1 game
0%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 1 game
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
生死 · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
526 picks · 713 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
487 picks · 564 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
481 picks · 606 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
478 picks · 405 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
469 picks · 566 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
440 picks · 797 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
437 picks · 968 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
395 picks · 230 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Spiky Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Excel Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:40
Spiky Gaming 45%Excel Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Excel Esports — the game was taken by Excel Esports in 28:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackIrving
50% · 180 games53% · 49 games
LinaButterflyEffect
Lina
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinukiyo
46% · 92 games49% · 23 games
LycanManic
Lycan
64% · 31 game
Night Stalker生死
Night Stalker
45% · 105 games
BatriderHara
Batrider
49% · 64 games
LionRedPanda
Lion
Game 2prediction missed32:15
Spiky Gaming 46%Excel Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Excel Esports — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 23:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingukiyo
50% · 347 games54% · 118 games
MagnusButterflyEffect
Magnus
Beastmaster
BeastmasterIrving
54% · 288 games42% · 18 games
BloodseekerManic
Bloodseeker
50% · 238 games
Pangolier生死
Pangolier
50% · 217 games
BatriderHara
Batrider
42% · 44 games
ZeusRedPanda
Zeus
Game 3prediction correct24:41
Spiky Gaming 46%Excel Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Excel Esports — the game was taken by Excel Esports in 35:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinukiyo
50% · 190 games36% · 33 games
LinaButterflyEffect
Lina
Tidehunter
TidehunterIrving
53% · 94 games61% · 59 games
BeastmasterManic
Beastmaster
45% · 109 games
Pangolier生死
Pangolier
32% · 8 games
Bounty HunterHara
Bounty Hunter
55% · 75 games
PhoenixRedPanda
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteExcel Esports · 56%
Series resultExcel Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3