PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionCNChicken N Friendswin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The MongolZloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chicken N Friends
Muerta
Jing · 3 games
Linaoften banned
Yowe · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
Karma丶 · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 2 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Karma丶 · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Karma丶 · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Palos · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Palos · 1 game
The MongolZ
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 10 games
Pucksignature
Wonder'boy · 10 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hishge · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
Hishge · 8 games
Doomoften banned
JG · 7 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Bob · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
526 picks · 713 bans
Clockwerk
487 picks · 564 bans
Batrider
481 picks · 606 bans
Muerta
478 picks · 405 bans
Tiny
469 picks · 566 bans
Gyrocopter
440 picks · 797 bans
Magnus
437 picks · 968 bans
Lion
395 picks · 230 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% The MongolZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Chicken N Friends
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:7
Chicken N Friends 53%The MongolZ 47%
The model gave 53% on Chicken N Friends — the game was taken by Chicken N Friends in 31:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerPalos
LinaBob
BeastmasterKarma丶
PangolierJG
Earth SpiritYowe
Shadow ShamanDJ
PugnaJing
Game 2prediction correct23:30
Chicken N Friends 55%The MongolZ 45%
The model gave 55% on Chicken N Friends — the game was taken by Chicken N Friends in 36:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingPalos
DawnbreakerJG
Earth SpiritYowe
TinyBob
BristlebackKarma丶
ClockwerkDJ
RikiJing
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken N Friends · 59%
Series resultChicken N Friends 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2