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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Perro Negroloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TeamCompromisowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Perro Negro

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Mjz · 13 games
46%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Wits · 9 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Oscar · 8 games
63%
Lich
Lich
Mjz · 6 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 6 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Wits · 6 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Wits · 4 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 4 games
25%

TeamCompromiso

Zeus
Zeus
Panda · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DaaD- · 4 games
100%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
kendallx · 3 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
Genek · 3 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Genek · 3 games
33%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Genek · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Adrx · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
524 picks · 707 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
485 picks · 562 bans
56%
Muerta
Muerta
478 picks · 404 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
477 picks · 604 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
468 picks · 564 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
437 picks · 796 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
432 picks · 965 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
395 picks · 230 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% TeamCompromiso
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% TeamCompromiso
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:17
Perro Negro 44%TeamCompromiso 56%
The model gave 56% on TeamCompromiso — the game was taken by Perro Negro in 46:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightDM
51% · 353 games53% · 181 game
MagnusDaaD-
Magnus
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerOscar
43% · 196 games51% · 182 games
TimbersawAdrx
Timbersaw
Lich
LichMjz
49% · 169 games47% · 236 games
BatriderGenek
Batrider
59% · 119 games
PugnaPanda
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct17:37
Perro Negro 44%TeamCompromiso 56%
The model gave 56% on TeamCompromiso — the game was taken by TeamCompromiso in 35:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDM
52% · 217 games52% · 262 games
Dragon KnightDaaD-
Dragon Knight
Doom
DoomOscar
53% · 140 games45% · 56 games
Night StalkerAdrx
Night Stalker
Pugna
PugnaMjz
42% · 83 games58% · 94 games
Nyx AssassinGenek
Nyx Assassin
45% · 28 games
WarlockPanda
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct17:30
Perro Negro 44%TeamCompromiso 56%
The model gave 56% on TeamCompromiso — the game was taken by TeamCompromiso in 38:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightDM
53% · 301 game49% · 244 games
GyrocopterDaaD-
Gyrocopter
Primal Beast
Primal BeastOscar
47% · 179 games55% · 156 games
MagnusAdrx
Magnus
Lich
LichMjz
46% · 184 games47% · 172 games
MuertaGenek
Muerta
55% · 92 games
Ogre MagiPanda
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeamCompromiso · 57%
Series resultTeamCompromiso 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3