The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PlayTimewin 2:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Estar Backsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PlayTime
Tusk
DJ · 17 games
Hoodwink
Scofield · 15 games
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 12 games
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 12 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Wits · 12 games
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
Vipersignature
Armel · 10 games
Estar Backs
Treant Protectoroften banned
Accel · 13 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 11 games
Tinysignature
payk · 10 games
Jakiro
Accel · 9 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
bsK7- · 5 games
Omniknight
bsK7- · 5 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bsK7- · 5 games
Disruptor
Accel · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
636 picks · 435 bans
Rubick
565 picks · 314 bans
Phoenix
482 picks · 585 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 389 bans
Pangolier
437 picks · 654 bans
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 529 bans
Puck
349 picks · 1027 bans
Tusk
343 picks · 299 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% PlayTime
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% PlayTime
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:15
PlayTime 91%Estar Backs 9%
The model gave 91% on PlayTime — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 35:50.
Game 2prediction correct33:7
PlayTime 75%Estar Backs 25%
The model gave 75% on PlayTime — the game was taken by PlayTime in 23:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierDarkMago
Shadow FiendParker
TinyWits
Ember SpiritS1RENM
LycanFrank
TimbersawbsK7-
EnchantressElmisho
PhoenixAccel
ClockwerkScofield
TuskMichael
Model check result
Model favoritePlayTime · 91%
Series resultPlayTime 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2