?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 21 game
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 20 games
65%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 19 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 17 games
71%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
69%
Muerta
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 15 games
60%

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 28 games
39%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 27 games
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 23 games
39%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pablo · 22 games
68%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 21 game
43%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 21 game
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 19 games
53%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Pablo · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
522 picks · 704 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
485 picks · 559 bans
56%
Batrider
Batrider
477 picks · 602 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
477 picks · 404 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
466 picks · 562 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
437 picks · 796 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
432 picks · 962 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
394 picks · 230 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:18
Yakult Brothers 70%Zero Tenacity 30%
The model gave 70% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 37:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingAme
53% · 226 games52% · 205 games
Dragon KnightRetsu
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEmo
51% · 231 game45% · 69 games
Queen of PainStojkov
Queen of Pain
Abaddon
Abaddonzeal
46% · 32 games51% · 118 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanBoBoKa
50% · 68 games49% · 188 games
RubickPablo
Rubick
Elder Titan
Elder Titan天命
52% · 167 games46% · 144 games
Shadow DemonLeBronDota
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct29:19
Yakult Brothers 69%Zero Tenacity 31%
The model gave 69% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 42:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAme
47% · 183 games42% · 146 games
Phantom AssassinRetsu
Phantom Assassin
Puck
PuckEmo
51% · 111 games40% · 48 games
AbaddonNefrit
Abaddon
Primal Beast
Primal Beastzeal
50% · 127 games47% · 240 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Muerta
MuertaBoBoKa
57% · 174 games51% · 305 games
LionPablo
Lion
Phoenix
Phoenix天命
57% · 205 games58% · 61 game
WarlockLeBronDota
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 82%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2