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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Night Pulsewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 18 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 18 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 16 games
56%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 16 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 15 games
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 14 games
21%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
23savage · 11 games
45%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
xNova · 11 games
36%

Night Pulse

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 15 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 12 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Davai · 12 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 12 games
75%
Lich
Lichsignature
Kidaro · 10 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Worick · 10 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Worick · 10 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
519 picks · 697 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
480 picks · 560 bans
56%
Batrider
Batrider
476 picks · 601 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
476 picks · 403 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
460 picks · 560 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
436 picks · 795 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
432 picks · 955 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
396 picks · 231 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:29
OG 40%Night Pulse 60%
The model gave 60% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 32:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter23savage
54% · 364 games51% · 268 games
Monkey KingKami
Monkey King
Abaddon
AbaddonCeb
40% · 22 games53% · 572 games
TinyWorick
Tiny
Invoker
InvokerNine
43% · 217 games55% · 175 games
Dark SeerDavai
Dark Seer
Batrider
BatriderDaze
49% · 389 games41% · 50 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Clockwerk
ClockwerkxNova
54% · 428 games50% · 355 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed43:29
OG 38%Night Pulse 62%
The model gave 62% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by OG in 55:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slark23savage
48% · 41 game54% · 161 game
Templar AssassinKami
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierNine
45% · 284 games50% · 68 games
Queen of PainWorick
Queen of Pain
Tidehunter
TidehunterCeb
56% · 55 games55% · 156 games
MagnusDavai
Magnus
Warlock
WarlockxNova
49% · 44 games50% · 110 games
Nyx AssassindEsire
Nyx Assassin
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDaze
46% · 171 game47% · 100 games
Elder TitanKidaro
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction correct15:30
OG 41%Night Pulse 59%
The model gave 59% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 33:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCeb
49% · 228 games48% · 317 games
Dragon KnightKami
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNine
43% · 186 games48% · 228 games
Earth SpiritWorick
Earth Spirit
Bristleback
Bristleback23savage
55% · 197 games44% · 35 games
AbaddonDavai
Abaddon
Chen
ChenxNova
62% · 112 games52% · 57 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Muerta
MuertaDaze
49% · 212 games49% · 298 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 68%
Series resultNight Pulse 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3