PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Kukuyswin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CNChicken N Friendsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Kukuys
Shadow Demonsignature
Jing · 8 games
Marcioften banned
Palos · 7 games
Queen of Painsignature
Yowe · 6 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Natsumi · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 5 games
Mirana
Palos · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
Abat · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Armel · 5 games
Chicken N Friends
Abaddonoften banned
Palos · 1 game
Earth Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Yowe · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
Karma丶 · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 1 game
Muerta
Jing · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
Karma丶 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
518 picks · 695 bans
Clockwerk
481 picks · 559 bans
Batrider
477 picks · 602 bans
Muerta
475 picks · 406 bans
Tiny
459 picks · 558 bans
Gyrocopter
436 picks · 797 bans
Magnus
432 picks · 955 bans
Lion
397 picks · 231 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Team Kukuys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Chicken N Friends
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:37
Team Kukuys 50%Chicken N Friends 50%
The model gave 50% on Chicken N Friends — the game was taken by Chicken N Friends in 39:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerAbat
TinyPalos
Earth SpiritArmel
Monkey KingYowe
LionPonyo
MagnusKarma丶
45% · 176 games
MuertaJing
Game 2prediction missed40:21
Team Kukuys 49%Chicken N Friends 51%
The model gave 51% on Chicken N Friends — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 41:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinAbat
BristlebackPalos
LinaArmel
PuckYowe
SilencerPonyo
Night StalkerKarma丶
52% · 51 game
RubickJing
Game 3prediction missed36:22
Team Kukuys 48%Chicken N Friends 52%
The model gave 52% on Chicken N Friends — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 40:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinAbat
MorphlingPalos
PuckArmel
LinaYowe
PhoenixPonyo
TerrorbladeKarma丶
53% · 185 games
MuertaJing
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken N Friends · 50%
Series resultTeam Kukuys 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3