PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Titanwin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EEExcel Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Titan
Grimstroke
mercy · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
Tusk
zzq · 1 game
Excel Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
514 picks · 691 bans
Batrider
476 picks · 600 bans
Clockwerk
476 picks · 566 bans
Muerta
476 picks · 405 bans
Tiny
455 picks · 552 bans
Gyrocopter
436 picks · 799 bans
Magnus
432 picks · 952 bans
Lion
399 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Excel Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Titan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:13
Titan 64%Excel Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Titan — the game was taken by Titan in 33:36.
Game 2prediction correct20:21
Titan 64%Excel Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Titan — the game was taken by Titan in 34:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteTitan · 64%
Series resultTitan 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2