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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spiky Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 6 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 5 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
y` · 5 games
60%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
NothingToSay · 5 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
pLAnet · 5 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 5 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
pLAnet · 5 games
60%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
NothingToSay · 5 games
80%

Spiky Gaming

Muerta
Muerta
TK · 15 games
27%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 9 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
生死 · 8 games
25%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
生死 · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
生死 · 8 games
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
13%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
TK · 7 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
511 picks · 691 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
478 picks · 405 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
476 picks · 598 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
473 picks · 565 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
456 picks · 546 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
434 picks · 798 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
429 picks · 951 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
398 picks · 233 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 43%
Hero pool strength63% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total94% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:14
Team Tidebound 80%Spiky Gaming 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 23:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptershiro
52% · 88 games51% · 101 game
Phantom Assassinukiyo
Phantom Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
40% · 103 games58% · 166 games
MagnusIrving
Magnus
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
37% · 35 games
Disruptor
Disruptory`
46% · 22 games
Riki
RikipLAnet
50% · 19 games
Game 2prediction correct21:6
Team Tidebound 80%Spiky Gaming 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 25:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFaith_bian
46% · 81 game53% · 173 games
Magnusukiyo
Magnus
Marci
Marcishiro
41% · 31 game51% · 120 games
WeaverIrving
Weaver
Huskar
HuskarNothingToSay
55% · 7 games
Io
Ioy`
56% · 17 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkpLAnet
50% · 157 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 94%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2