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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backswin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Perro Negroloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Estar Backs

No games played over 6 months.

Perro Negro

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Mjz · 13 games
46%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Wits · 9 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Oscar · 8 games
63%
Lich
Lich
Mjz · 6 games
33%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Wits · 5 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Wits · 4 games
25%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
kendallx · 4 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
507 picks · 689 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
476 picks · 403 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
472 picks · 596 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
470 picks · 562 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 542 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
434 picks · 798 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
425 picks · 949 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:10
Estar Backs 57%Perro Negro 43%
The model gave 57% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 33:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinMnz
47% · 57 games51% · 144 games
LifestealerWits
Lifestealer
Doom
DoomFrank
51% · 181 game51% · 272 games
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
Centaur Warrunner
Primal Beast
Primal BeastLeostyle
52% · 143 games52% · 391 game
PhoenixMjz
Phoenix
Batrider
BatriderPrada
48% · 270 games
Muerta
MuertaMichael
45% · 156 games
Game 2prediction correct32:14
Estar Backs 60%Perro Negro 40%
The model gave 60% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 29:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinMnz
50% · 93 games46% · 56 games
UrsaWits
Ursa
Tidehunter
TidehunterFrank
44% · 63 games49% · 150 games
BeastmasterOscar
Beastmaster
Chen
ChenPrada
57% · 95 games47% · 144 games
PhoenixMjz
Phoenix
Earthshaker
EarthshakerLeostyle
55% · 66 games
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMichael
58% · 33 games
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 68%
Series resultEstar Backs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2