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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Chicken N Friendswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 22 games
73%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Mac · 18 games
56%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 18 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mac · 18 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 16 games
81%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Tims · 14 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Mac · 14 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 14 games
57%

Chicken N Friends

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
500 picks · 674 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
476 picks · 408 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
467 picks · 594 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
462 picks · 570 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
448 picks · 524 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
431 picks · 797 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
417 picks · 939 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:16
BOOM Esports 71%Chicken N Friends 29%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 38:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenJaCkky
62% · 102 games43% · 207 games
MorphlingPalos
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierMac
52% · 332 games45% · 175 games
Ember SpiritYowe
Ember Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFbz
53% · 82 games46% · 40 games
Night StalkerKarma丶
Night Stalker
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinTims
56% · 111 games44% · 205 games
TuskJing
Tusk
Silencer
SilencerJaunuel
little data
Game 2prediction missed17:29
BOOM Esports 71%Chicken N Friends 29%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Chicken N Friends in 40:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinJaCkky
40% · 71 game43% · 128 games
LinaYowe
Lina
Bristleback
BristlebackFbz
59% · 149 games38% · 13 games
AbaddonPalos
Abaddon
Sand King
Sand KingMac
54% · 60 games50% · 194 games
MagnusKarma丶
Magnus
Tusk
TuskTims
48% · 132 games52% · 248 games
MuertaJing
Muerta
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJaunuel
58% · 171 game
Game 3prediction missed22:33
BOOM Esports 72%Chicken N Friends 28%
The model gave 72% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Chicken N Friends in 41:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackFbz
50% · 119 games51% · 129 games
Phantom AssassinPalos
Phantom Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierMac
48% · 213 games49% · 248 games
Earth SpiritYowe
Earth Spirit
Spectre
SpectreJaCkky
43% · 37 games51% · 199 games
TerrorbladeKarma丶
Terrorblade
Lion
LionTims
54% · 135 games47% · 115 games
ZeusJing
Zeus
Phoenix
PhoenixJaunuel
54% · 187 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 84%
Series resultChicken N Friends 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3