PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xxanblloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 16 games
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 15 games
Muerta
ariel · 14 games
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 13 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 12 games
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 10 games
Lionsignature
ariel · 10 games
xanbl
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
499 picks · 662 bans
Muerta
474 picks · 406 bans
Batrider
462 picks · 591 bans
Clockwerk
460 picks · 566 bans
Tiny
445 picks · 517 bans
Gyrocopter
425 picks · 795 bans
Magnus
415 picks · 936 bans
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 41%
Hero pool strength50% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:25
4Pirates 62%xanbl 38%
The model gave 62% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 29:49.
Game 2prediction correct26:8
4Pirates 62%xanbl 38%
The model gave 62% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 31:43.
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 62%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2