?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brothersloss 0:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Night Pulsewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
BoBoKa · 27 games
59%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 21 game
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 20 games
65%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 18 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 17 games
71%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
69%
Muerta
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 15 games
60%

Night Pulse

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 15 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 13 games
54%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Davai · 12 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
JANTER · 12 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Worick · 11 games
45%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 9 games
44%
Lich
Lichsignature
Kidaro · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
499 picks · 662 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
474 picks · 406 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
462 picks · 591 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
460 picks · 566 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 517 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
425 picks · 795 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
415 picks · 936 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 68%
Hero pool strength53% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Yakult Brothers 57%Night Pulse 43%
The model gave 57% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Night Pulse.
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 57%
Series resultNight Pulse 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1