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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 15 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 13 games
54%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Davai · 12 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
JANTER · 12 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Worick · 11 games
45%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 9 games
44%
Lich
Lichsignature
Kidaro · 9 games
67%

Winter Bear

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 6 games
83%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 5 games
20%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Delight · 5 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Delight · 4 games
25%
Lion
Lion
Delight · 3 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
jAMES · 2 games
100%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Delight · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
499 picks · 659 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
474 picks · 404 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
462 picks · 590 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
460 picks · 566 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 517 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
425 picks · 795 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
415 picks · 935 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Night Pulse
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total88% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 2prediction correct26:14
Night Pulse 88%Winter Bear 12%
The model gave 88% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 23:58.
Game 3prediction correct22:50
Night Pulse 88%Winter Bear 12%
The model gave 88% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 36:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 88%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2