PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionXxanblwin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Apple City Gangloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
xanbl
No games played over 6 months.
Apple City Gang
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
497 picks · 654 bans
Muerta
473 picks · 405 bans
Batrider
465 picks · 589 bans
Clockwerk
459 picks · 565 bans
Tiny
444 picks · 515 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 794 bans
Magnus
415 picks · 936 bans
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% xanbl
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Apple City Gang
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
xanbl 45%Apple City Gang 55%
The model gave 55% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by xanbl.
Game 2prediction correct
xanbl 45%Apple City Gang 55%
The model gave 55% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Apple City Gang.
Game 3prediction missed
xanbl 45%Apple City Gang 55%
The model gave 55% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by xanbl.
Model check result
Model favoriteApple City Gang · 55%
Series resultxanbl 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3