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European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
4ikibamboniloss 1:2
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spirit Academywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4ikibamboni

Tusk
Tusksignature
waveformn · 7 games
71%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Ankou · 5 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ani-san · 5 games
80%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
60%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
80%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 4 games
50%
Bane
Bane
ani-san · 3 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ankou · 3 games
67%

Team Spirit Academy

Jakiro
Jakiro
kyford · 17 games
29%
Lion
Lion
Aidar · 16 games
44%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Aidar · 14 games
21%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 12 games
25%
Dazzle
Dazzle
kyford · 11 games
36%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
86 · 11 games
45%
Warlock
Warlock
kyford · 11 games
27%
Techies
Techiessignature
Aidar · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
637 picks · 434 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
562 picks · 313 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
483 picks · 588 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
457 picks · 391 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
436 picks · 652 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
351 picks · 1025 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 532 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
341 picks · 302 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 33%
Hero pool strength62% 4ikibamboni
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% 4ikibamboni
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:23
4ikibamboni 68%Team Spirit Academy 32%
The model gave 68% on 4ikibamboni — the game was taken by 4ikibamboni in 42:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slarkyowaai
50% · 57 games44% · 80 games
Brewmasterkae
Brewmaster
Death Prophet
Death ProphetEthereal
45% · 42 games44% · 50 games
Drow RangerIllidan
Drow Ranger
Undying
UndyingAnkou
54% · 117 games61% · 225 games
Batrider86
Batrider
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkwaveformn
55% · 436 games44% · 292 games
Snapfirekyford
Snapfire
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorani-san
56% · 104 games38% · 109 games
Dark WillowAidar
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed32:50
4ikibamboni 68%Team Spirit Academy 32%
The model gave 68% on 4ikibamboni — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 55:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeryowaai
36% · 49 games55% · 51 game
NecrophosIllidan
Necrophos
Snapfire
SnapfireEthereal
48% · 170 games53% · 25 games
Earth Spirit86
Earth Spirit
Batrider
BatriderAnkou
51% · 192 games56% · 243 games
Doomkae
Doom
Axe
Axewaveformn
42% · 186 games53% · 272 games
Abaddonkyford
Abaddon
Rubick
Rubickani-san
49% · 139 games54% · 145 games
LionAidar
Lion
Game 3prediction missed35:60
4ikibamboni 66%Team Spirit Academy 34%
The model gave 66% on 4ikibamboni — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 50:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceryowaai
39% · 24 games57% · 50 games
Drow RangerIllidan
Drow Ranger
Zeus
ZeusEthereal
54% · 18 games56% · 144 games
Primal Beastkae
Primal Beast
Axe
AxeAnkou
41% · 186 games53% · 260 games
Batrider86
Batrider
Ringmaster
Ringmasterani-san
50% · 187 games50% · 64 games
GrimstrokeAidar
Grimstroke
Tusk
Tuskwaveformn
42% · 293 games61% · 190 games
Banekyford
Bane
Model check result
Model favorite4ikibamboni · 80%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3