FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Moodeng Warriorsloss 1:3series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:3
BOOM Esportswin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Moodeng Warriors
Elder Titan
Oli · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
423 · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Abed · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Oli · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
JT- · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
Jabz · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JT- · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
423 · 1 game
BOOM Esports
Lionsignature
Tims · 21 game
Earthshaker
Mac · 18 games
Pangoliersignature
Mac · 18 games
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 17 games
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Tims · 14 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 14 games
Beastmastersignature
Fbz · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
494 picks · 642 bans
Muerta
473 picks · 402 bans
Batrider
464 picks · 585 bans
Clockwerk
454 picks · 559 bans
Tiny
438 picks · 509 bans
Gyrocopter
424 picks · 791 bans
Magnus
412 picks · 931 bans
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Moodeng Warriors
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:8
Moodeng Warriors 46%BOOM Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Moodeng Warriors in 28:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling423
Phantom AssassinJaCkky
PangolierAbed
BristlebackFbz
Legion CommanderJT-
Earth SpiritMac
RikiJabz
Spirit BreakerTims
EnchantressOli
WarlockJaunuel
Game 2prediction correct13:26
Moodeng Warriors 48%BOOM Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 43:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaAbed
Naga SirenJaCkky
MagnusJT-
BristlebackFbz
Morphling423
Monkey KingMac
ChenOli
VenomancerJaunuel
ClockwerkJabz
LionTims
Game 3prediction correct22:23
Moodeng Warriors 48%BOOM Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 52:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingAbed
Naga SirenJaCkky
Lycan423
LinaMac
Dark SeerJT-
MarsFbz
RikiJabz
Nyx AssassinTims
PhoenixOli
WarlockJaunuel
Game 4prediction correct23:32
Moodeng Warriors 48%BOOM Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 59:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckAbed
MorphlingJaCkky
Phantom Assassin423
MagnusMac
TimbersawJT-
DoomFbz
Bounty HunterJabz
TuskTims
WarlockOli
PhoenixJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 52%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4