PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionEEExcel Esportswin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NNGNBloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Excel Esports
No games played over 6 months.
NGNB
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
492 picks · 638 bans
Muerta
471 picks · 402 bans
Batrider
464 picks · 583 bans
Clockwerk
453 picks · 555 bans
Tiny
437 picks · 505 bans
Gyrocopter
423 picks · 789 bans
Magnus
411 picks · 925 bans
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 29%
Hero pool strength50% Excel Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Excel Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:36
Excel Esports 69%NGNB 31%
The model gave 69% on Excel Esports — the game was taken by Excel Esports in 28:50.
Game 2prediction correct18:45
Excel Esports 69%NGNB 31%
The model gave 69% on Excel Esports — the game was taken by Excel Esports in 23:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteExcel Esports · 69%
Series resultExcel Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2