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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 21 game
71%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Mac · 18 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 17 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 16 games
81%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 16 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Tims · 14 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 14 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Fbz · 13 games
77%

Execration

Marci
Marcioften banned
Tino- · 12 games
42%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Tino- · 12 games
58%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
90%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 9 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 8 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Shanks · 7 games
29%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Shanks · 6 games
17%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
cml · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
492 picks · 638 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
471 picks · 402 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
464 picks · 583 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
453 picks · 555 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 505 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
423 picks · 789 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
411 picks · 925 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 52%
Hero pool strength57% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total69% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:8
BOOM Esports 62%Execration 38%
The model gave 62% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 27:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenJaCkky
54% · 57 games45% · 140 games
TerrorbladeAkashi
Terrorblade
Sand King
Sand KingMac
59% · 97 games48% · 318 games
PangolierTino-
Pangolier
Magnus
MagnusFbz
52% · 130 games49% · 34 games
Warlockcml
Warlock
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerTims
54% · 34 games47% · 14 games
RikiShanks
Riki
Phoenix
PhoenixJaunuel
48% · 188 games
Game 2prediction correct31:20
BOOM Esports 58%Execration 42%
The model gave 58% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 35:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinJaCkky
53% · 49 games54% · 166 games
BristlebackAkashi
Bristleback
Mars
MarsFbz
48% · 79 games49% · 66 games
LycanTino-
Lycan
Pangolier
PangolierMac
48% · 154 games55% · 48 games
Spirit BreakerShanks
Spirit Breaker
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinTims
53% · 58 games45% · 79 games
Zeuscml
Zeus
Warlock
WarlockJaunuel
44% · 19 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 69%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2