FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionLFLooking for Orgloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
M80win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Looking for Org
Batrideroften banned
Matthew · 9 games
Gyrocoptersignature
payk · 8 games
Beastmastersignature
Vitaly · 7 games
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 7 games
Earthshakeroften banned
PiPi · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
Yadomi · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 6 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
M80
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 26 games
Clockwerksignature
MoOz · 25 games
Enchantressoften banned
MoOz · 18 games
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 17 games
Muertasignature
Elmisho · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 16 games
Phoenixoften banned
MoOz · 16 games
Gyrocoptersignature
K1 · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
491 picks · 637 bans
Muerta
470 picks · 402 bans
Batrider
464 picks · 583 bans
Clockwerk
453 picks · 554 bans
Tiny
436 picks · 504 bans
Gyrocopter
422 picks · 789 bans
Magnus
411 picks · 925 bans
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Looking for Org
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% M80
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:21
Looking for Org 46%M80 54%
The model gave 54% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 45:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckPiPi
GyrocopterK1
Templar Assassinpayk
DawnbreakerILICH-
AbaddonVitaly
EarthshakerDarkMago
MuertaMatthew
Shadow DemonElmisho
Ogre MagiYadomi
PhoenixMoOz
Game 2prediction correct20:18
Looking for Org 47%M80 53%
The model gave 53% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 46:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerpayk
AbaddonK1
PangolierPiPi
TinyDarkMago
BristlebackVitaly
RazorILICH-
ZeusYadomi
EnchantressMoOz
RikiMatthew
Shadow DemonElmisho
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 59%
Series resultM80 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2