FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Perro Negroloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TTeamCompromisowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Perro Negro
Enchantressoften banned
Mjz · 13 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
Wits · 8 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Oscar · 7 games
Lich
Mjz · 5 games
Ursaoften banned
Wits · 5 games
Magnusoften banned
kendallx · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
Abaddon
Mjz · 3 games
TeamCompromiso
Muerta
Genek · 2 games
Zeus
Panda · 2 games
Dark Willow
Genek · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
kendallx · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
DaaD- · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
kendallx · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
DaaD- · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
DaaD- · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
491 picks · 635 bans
Muerta
470 picks · 401 bans
Batrider
463 picks · 583 bans
Clockwerk
453 picks · 553 bans
Tiny
436 picks · 504 bans
Gyrocopter
422 picks · 789 bans
Magnus
411 picks · 923 bans
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Perro Negro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% TeamCompromiso
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:31
Perro Negro 48%TeamCompromiso 52%
The model gave 52% on TeamCompromiso — the game was taken by TeamCompromiso in 45:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonWits
BristlebackDaaD-
TidehunterOscar
Beastmasterkendallx
LichMjz
ZeusPanda
48% · 120 games
BatriderGenek
Game 2prediction missed16:34
Perro Negro 53%TeamCompromiso 47%
The model gave 53% on Perro Negro — the game was taken by TeamCompromiso in 44:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinWits
BeastmasterDaaD-
DawnbreakerOscar
Tidehunterkendallx
ChenMjz
ZeusPanda
50% · 62 games
Nyx AssassinGenek
Model check result
Model favoriteTeamCompromiso · 51%
Series resultTeamCompromiso 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2