PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Y5 Esportsloss 0:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Xxanblwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Y5 Esports
Beastmasteroften banned
Dominic · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
Dominic · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
xanbl
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
491 picks · 634 bans
Muerta
470 picks · 401 bans
Batrider
463 picks · 583 bans
Clockwerk
453 picks · 553 bans
Tiny
436 picks · 503 bans
Gyrocopter
422 picks · 789 bans
Magnus
411 picks · 923 bans
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% xanbl
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% xanbl
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Y5 Esports 39%xanbl 61%
The model gave 61% on xanbl — the game was taken by xanbl.
Model check result
Model favoritexanbl · 61%
Series resultxanbl 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1