Asian Dragon Series: Continental Collision · BO3
result vs prediction
Ivoryloss 0:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ivory
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Rupido · 5 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Rubick
Dric~ · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Ken · 4 games
Lion
Dric~ · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Ken · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 3 games
OG
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 18 games
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 17 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 16 games
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 16 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 15 games
Hoodwink
Ari · 13 games
Enchantressoften banned
xNova · 11 games
Invokeroften banned
Nine · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
489 picks · 630 bans
Muerta
468 picks · 403 bans
Batrider
461 picks · 584 bans
Clockwerk
448 picks · 555 bans
Tiny
433 picks · 502 bans
Gyrocopter
421 picks · 789 bans
Magnus
413 picks · 918 bans
Lion
396 picks · 234 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 37%
Hero pool strength55% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:38
Ivory 29%OG 71%
The model gave 71% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 34:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritKen
Spectre23savage
DawnbreakerRupido
TinyNine
ClockwerkDric~
EnigmaCeb
51% · 195 games
MuertaDaze
44% · 123 games
LichxNova
Game 2prediction correct27:44
Ivory 33%OG 67%
The model gave 67% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 38:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerKen
Dragon Knight23savage
Dark SeerRupido
AbaddonCeb
ClockwerkDric~
PangolierNine
55% · 112 games
PugnaxNova
50% · 166 games
LionDaze
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 84%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2