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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:0
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 22 games
64%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Solo · 21 game
57%
Lion
Lion
lupsione · 19 games
58%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 19 games
68%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 14 games
43%
Muerta
Muerta
jesv · 13 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 12 games
17%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jesv · 12 games
42%

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 45 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 41 game
66%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 41 game
61%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 33 games
76%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 31 game
61%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 30 games
57%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 29 games
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
488 picks · 629 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
468 picks · 402 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
461 picks · 582 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
446 picks · 555 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
432 picks · 502 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
421 picks · 789 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
413 picks · 918 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
396 picks · 234 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 57%
Hero pool strength58% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:37
9Pandas 40%AVULUS 60%
The model gave 60% on AVULUS — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 59:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackV-Tune
54% · 131 game48% · 169 games
Sniperre1bl
Sniper
Lina
Linaerase
53% · 95 games50% · 236 games
Monkey KingSmiling Knight
Monkey King
Phoenix
Phoenixlaise
54% · 186 games28% · 33 games
AbaddonMalik
Abaddon
Pugna
PugnaSolo
54% · 96 games49% · 61 game
Bounty HunterEkki
Bounty Hunter
Clockwerk
Clockwerklupsione
55% · 226 games45% · 235 games
LichSoNNeikO
Lich
Game 2prediction missed38:15
9Pandas 42%AVULUS 58%
The model gave 58% on AVULUS — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 33:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerV-Tune
56% · 102 games46% · 136 games
UrsaSmiling Knight
Ursa
Dark Seer
Dark Seerlaise
51% · 122 games48% · 486 games
Pangolierre1bl
Pangolier
Tiny
Tinyerase
54% · 278 games32% · 20 games
AbaddonMalik
Abaddon
Clockwerk
Clockwerklupsione
54% · 255 games50% · 76 games
VenomancerSoNNeikO
Venomancer
Pugna
PugnaSolo
53% · 85 games45% · 124 games
ZeusEkki
Zeus
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 70%
Series result9Pandas 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2