M80 vs TeamCompromiso — prediction FUE4ЗК · Dota 2

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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

M80win 2:1

series probability

59%41%

probability at match start · final 2:1

TTeamCompromisoloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

M80

Batrideroften banned

Elmisho · 26 games

58%

Clockwerkoften banned

MoOz · 24 games

58%

Dark Willow

Elmisho · 17 games

53%

Enchantressoften banned

MoOz · 17 games

53%

Muertasignature

payk · 16 games

63%

Pangoliersignature

DarkMago · 16 games

75%

Gyrocoptersignature

K1 · 15 games

60%

Phoenixoften banned

MoOz · 15 games

53%

TeamCompromiso

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Phoenix

482 picks · 623 bans

54%

Muerta

463 picks · 401 bans

51%

Batrider

459 picks · 579 bans

50%

Clockwerk

442 picks · 552 bans

56%

Tiny

428 picks · 496 bans

52%

Gyrocopter

420 picks · 784 bans

56%

Magnus

409 picks · 916 bans

59%

Lion

396 picks · 233 bans

55%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)44% vs 71%

Hero pool strength53% M80

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total59% M80

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed12:26

M80 55%TeamCompromiso 45%

The model gave 55% on M80 — the game was taken by TeamCompromiso in 31:43.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo