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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Passion UAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 22 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
47%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 16 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 15 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 14 games
50%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 36 games
56%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 28 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 27 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 26 games
46%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 23 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
niche · 23 games
61%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 23 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
flacko · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
479 picks · 621 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
463 picks · 401 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
459 picks · 579 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
440 picks · 550 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
427 picks · 495 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 783 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
406 picks · 913 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
395 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total72% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:15
1w Team 72%Passion UA 28%
The model gave 72% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 24:31.
Game 2prediction correct32:48
1w Team 72%Passion UA 28%
The model gave 72% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 1:17:01.
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 72%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2