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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 6 games
83%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 5 games
20%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Delight · 5 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Delight · 4 games
25%
Lion
Lion
Delight · 3 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
jAMES · 2 games
100%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Delight · 1 game
100%

Team Secret

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
27%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 10 games
60%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 10 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 9 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 9 games
33%
Invoker
Invokersignature
xn丶e · 8 games
63%
Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
479 picks · 620 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
463 picks · 401 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
459 picks · 577 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
440 picks · 549 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
427 picks · 494 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 783 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
406 picks · 911 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
395 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 41%
Hero pool strength52% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct53:30
Winter Bear 21%Team Secret 79%
The model gave 79% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 46:53.
Game 2prediction correct52:34
Winter Bear 21%Team Secret 79%
The model gave 79% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 54:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 79%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2