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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
ASAKURAwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
РАБОТЯГИloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ASAKURA

Lion
Lion
slimeyao · 11 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 7 games
57%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 7 games
57%
Lich
Lich
VaniLLl · 7 games
57%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Infernal · 7 games
43%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 6 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 6 games
83%

РАБОТЯГИ

Lion
Lion
lupsione · 4 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
asdekor_r · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirele · 4 games
25%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
lupsione · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
zvёzd · 3 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 3 games
33%
Muerta
Muerta
lupsione · 3 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mirele · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
478 picks · 618 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
462 picks · 400 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
457 picks · 576 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
440 picks · 549 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
425 picks · 492 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 782 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
406 picks · 909 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
394 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:25
ASAKURA 58%РАБОТЯГИ 42%
The model gave 58% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 46:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight7jesu
52% · 304 games51% · 108 games
Lifestealerssnovv1
Lifestealer
Puck
Puckyoung G
49% · 291 game47% · 175 games
Templar AssassinMirele
Templar Assassin
Doom
DoomVladikTheHtiviy
52% · 253 games50% · 75 games
Night Stalkerspirit
Night Stalker
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanslimeyao
54% · 69 games48% · 393 games
BatriderSomnia
Batrider
Lich
LichVaniLLl
49% · 138 games50% · 304 games
Shadow Demonasdekor_r
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct36:21
ASAKURA 59%РАБОТЯГИ 41%
The model gave 59% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 46:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling7jesu
46% · 277 games49% · 400 games
Dragon Knightssnovv1
Dragon Knight
Tiny
Tinyyoung G
53% · 399 games48% · 249 games
Ember SpiritMirele
Ember Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkerVladikTheHtiviy
54% · 63 games40% · 19 games
Abaddonspirit
Abaddon
Rubick
Rubickslimeyao
50% · 241 game57% · 176 games
Pugnaasdekor_r
Pugna
Elder Titan
Elder TitanVaniLLl
51% · 122 games46% · 258 games
LionSomnia
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 66%
Series resultASAKURA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2