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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
9Pandasloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 28 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 20 games
55%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 20 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 17 games
24%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 17 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 15 games
20%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 15 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
WoE · 15 games
67%

9Pandas

Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 22 games
64%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Solo · 21 game
57%
Lion
Lion
lupsione · 19 games
58%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 18 games
72%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 14 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 12 games
17%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jesv · 12 games
42%
Muerta
Muerta
jesv · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
478 picks · 618 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
462 picks · 400 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
457 picks · 576 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
440 picks · 549 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
425 picks · 492 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 782 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
406 picks · 909 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
394 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% 9Pandas
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total59% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:17
One Move 46%9Pandas 54%
The model gave 54% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by One Move in 44:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerWoE
55% · 43 games50% · 42 games
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
Phantom Assassin
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSSS
49% · 151 game52% · 81 game
Ember Spiriterase
Ember Spirit
Dazzle
DazzleDifference
52% · 24 games49% · 8 games
Abaddonlaise
Abaddon
Zeus
ZeusRein
45% · 84 games56% · 88 games
Muertalupsione
Muerta
Riki
Rikinot me
58% · 20 games41% · 103 games
PhoenixSolo
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed35:26
One Move 43%9Pandas 57%
The model gave 57% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by One Move in 43:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzWoE
60% · 18 games39% · 36 games
Wraith KingV-Tune
Wraith King
Tiny
TinyDifference
47% · 293 games55% · 85 games
Earthshakererase
Earthshaker
Doom
DoomSSS
52% · 201 game54% · 105 games
Enigmalaise
Enigma
Zeus
ZeusRein
47% · 80 games48% · 314 games
Batriderlupsione
Batrider
Riki
Rikinot me
75% · 8 games45% · 60 games
UndyingSolo
Undying
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 59%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2