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BLAST Slam II · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 32 games
63%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 32 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 31 game
61%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 30 games
77%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 27 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 25 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 24 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 24 games
67%

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 22 games
68%
Mars
Marssignature
No!ob · 21 game
67%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 19 games
79%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 18 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 17 games
47%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
SumaiL · 17 games
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 16 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 15 games
87%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
478 picks · 615 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
462 picks · 400 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
458 picks · 576 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
440 picks · 546 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
424 picks · 492 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 782 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
405 picks · 909 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
394 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total84% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:25
Tundra Esports 71%Nigma Galaxy 29%
The model gave 71% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingbzm
56% · 174 games46% · 321 game
MorphlingGhost
Morphling
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
48% · 253 games43% · 76 games
EarthshakerSumaiL
Earthshaker
Lifestealer
Lifestealerdyrachyo
55% · 75 games58% · 158 games
EnigmaNo!ob
Enigma
Venomancer
VenomancerWhitemon
40% · 12 games55% · 148 games
Nyx AssassinOmaR
Nyx Assassin
Batrider
BatriderSaksa
47% · 317 games44% · 128 games
LichGH
Lich
Game 2prediction missed15:27
Tundra Esports 69%Nigma Galaxy 31%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 45:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
45% · 190 games41% · 69 games
Phantom AssassinGhost
Phantom Assassin
Abaddon
Abaddondyrachyo
43% · 3 games54% · 57 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Morphling
Morphlingbzm
47% · 183 games52% · 116 games
MagnusNo!ob
Magnus
Venomancer
VenomancerWhitemon
59% · 9 games56% · 79 games
Elder TitanGH
Elder Titan
Riki
RikiSaksa
61% · 9 games62% · 73 games
Nyx AssassinOmaR
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction correct36:9
Tundra Esports 69%Nigma Galaxy 31%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
37% · 73 games55% · 144 games
WeaverGhost
Weaver
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
48% · 278 games48% · 360 games
TinySumaiL
Tiny
Earthshaker
Earthshakerbzm
56% · 102 games52% · 155 games
TimbersawNo!ob
Timbersaw
Batrider
BatriderSaksa
43% · 404 games53% · 143 games
Nyx AssassinOmaR
Nyx Assassin
Warlock
WarlockWhitemon
55% · 43 games54% · 98 games
Elder TitanGH
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 84%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3