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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:1
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 0:1
4Pirateswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 24 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 22 games
45%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 19 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Panto · 17 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Alberkaaa · 15 games
60%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 15 games
73%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Mirage · 15 games
47%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 15 games
47%

4Pirates

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 14 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 14 games
36%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
54%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
58%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 11 games
55%
Lion
Lionsignature
ariel · 10 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 10 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
472 picks · 606 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
461 picks · 397 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
454 picks · 565 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
433 picks · 541 bans
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 780 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
417 picks · 484 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
403 picks · 901 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
394 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:30
HULIGANI 63%4Pirates 37%
The model gave 63% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 44:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
Lycanv1olent-
50% · 31 game44% · 30 games
BloodseekerOtaker
Bloodseeker
Sniper
Sniperxn丶e
46% · 96 games50% · 228 games
PuckNattyNarwhal
Puck
Abaddon
AbaddonAlberkaaa
67% · 5 games56% · 197 games
Timbersawмистер мораль
Timbersaw
Batrider
BatriderAntares
50% · 257 games36% · 32 games
WarlockPERDAN4IK
Warlock
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRESPECT
51% · 249 games56% · 151 game
Nyx Assassinariel
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 77%
Series result4Pirates 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1