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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:1
1w Teamwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 45 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 41 game
66%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 40 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 31 game
77%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 31 game
61%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 30 games
57%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 29 games
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
67%

1w Team

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 22 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 15 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 14 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
swedenstrong · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
472 picks · 606 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
461 picks · 397 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
454 picks · 565 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
433 picks · 541 bans
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 780 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
417 picks · 484 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
403 picks · 901 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
394 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% AVULUS
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total55% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:32
AVULUS 52%1w Team 48%
The model gave 52% on AVULUS — the game was taken by 1w Team in 42:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherSmiling Knight
49% · 100 games55% · 228 games
TinyMunkushi~
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritre1bl
48% · 167 games53% · 105 games
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Invoker
Tidehunter
TidehunterMalik
46% · 65 games44% · 144 games
DoomCloud
Doom
Zeus
ZeusEkki
41% · 112 games75% · 4 games
Rikiswedenstrong
Riki
Elder Titan
Elder TitanSoNNeikO
48% · 110 games62% · 73 games
DisruptorFishman
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 55%
Series result1w Team 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1