FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Moodeng Warriorswin 2:1series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Young Bloodloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Moodeng Warriors
No games played over 6 months.
Young Blood
Ogre Magi
LOyd · 3 games
Dark Willow
dalul · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
TraVins · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
Red · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
TraVins · 2 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Red · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
LOyd · 2 games
Shadow Shaman
dalul · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
472 picks · 604 bans
Muerta
461 picks · 396 bans
Batrider
454 picks · 565 bans
Clockwerk
432 picks · 540 bans
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 780 bans
Tiny
415 picks · 484 bans
Magnus
403 picks · 898 bans
Lion
394 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Young Blood
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Moodeng Warriors
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:9
Moodeng Warriors 75%Young Blood 25%
The model gave 75% on Moodeng Warriors — the game was taken by Moodeng Warriors in 27:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter423
MorphlingTraVins
TimbersawJT-
SniperMamangDaya
TinyAbed
BeastmasterRed
Shadow ShamanJabz
Bounty Hunterdalul
Elder TitanOli
ClockwerkLOyd
Game 2prediction missed
Moodeng Warriors 90%Young Blood 10%
The model gave 90% on Moodeng Warriors — the game was taken by Young Blood.
Game 3prediction correct
Moodeng Warriors 90%Young Blood 10%
The model gave 90% on Moodeng Warriors — the game was taken by Moodeng Warriors.
Model check result
Model favoriteMoodeng Warriors · 90%
Series resultMoodeng Warriors 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3