PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:0series probability
96%4%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AMalpha mantisloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Night Pulse
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 18 games
Hoodwink
JANTER · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 15 games
Enigmasignature
Davai · 12 games
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 12 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Worick · 11 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 10 games
alpha mantis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
472 picks · 605 bans
Muerta
461 picks · 397 bans
Batrider
454 picks · 565 bans
Clockwerk
432 picks · 541 bans
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 780 bans
Tiny
415 picks · 484 bans
Magnus
403 picks · 898 bans
Lion
396 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Night Pulse 96%alpha mantis 4%
The model gave 96% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse.
Game 2prediction correct
Night Pulse 96%alpha mantis 4%
The model gave 96% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse.
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 96%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2