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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
4Piratesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 22 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 15 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 14 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
swedenstrong · 14 games
57%

4Pirates

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 14 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 14 games
36%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
54%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
58%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 11 games
55%
Lion
Lionsignature
ariel · 10 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 10 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
472 picks · 604 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
461 picks · 397 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
454 picks · 564 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
432 picks · 541 bans
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 780 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
415 picks · 483 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
403 picks · 898 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
396 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total81% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:22
1w Team 81%4Pirates 19%
The model gave 81% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 37:47.
Game 2prediction missed29:6
1w Team 81%4Pirates 19%
The model gave 81% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 31:57.
Game 3prediction correct11:25
1w Team 81%4Pirates 19%
The model gave 81% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 27:54.
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 81%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3