PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Letoloss 0:1series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:1
4Pirateswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Leto
No games played over 6 months.
4Pirates
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 14 games
Muerta
ariel · 14 games
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 11 games
Lionsignature
ariel · 10 games
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 10 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
472 picks · 602 bans
Muerta
461 picks · 397 bans
Batrider
453 picks · 563 bans
Clockwerk
430 picks · 541 bans
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 780 bans
Tiny
414 picks · 483 bans
Magnus
403 picks · 895 bans
Lion
396 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Leto 23%4Pirates 77%
The model gave 77% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 77%
Series result4Pirates 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1