PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Moodeng Warriorswin 1:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Ivoryloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Moodeng Warriors
No games played over 6 months.
Ivory
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Rupido · 5 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Rubick
Dric~ · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Ken · 4 games
Lion
Dric~ · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
472 picks · 602 bans
Muerta
463 picks · 397 bans
Batrider
453 picks · 563 bans
Clockwerk
431 picks · 541 bans
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 781 bans
Tiny
415 picks · 484 bans
Magnus
403 picks · 895 bans
Lion
396 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% Moodeng Warriors
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Moodeng Warriors
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Moodeng Warriors 79%Ivory 21%
The model gave 79% on Moodeng Warriors — the game was taken by Moodeng Warriors.
Model check result
Model favoriteMoodeng Warriors · 79%
Series resultMoodeng Warriors 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1