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BLAST Slam II · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PARIVISIONloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 22 games
68%
Mars
Marssignature
No!ob · 21 game
67%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 19 games
79%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 18 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 17 games
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 16 games
56%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 15 games
73%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
OmaR · 15 games
53%

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 24 games
79%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 20 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 20 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 20 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 19 games
53%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 19 games
84%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 18 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
470 picks · 601 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
463 picks · 397 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
453 picks · 563 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
431 picks · 538 bans
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 781 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
415 picks · 481 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
401 picks · 894 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
396 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total75% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:11
Nigma Galaxy 35%PARIVISION 65%
The model gave 65% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterGhost
55% · 239 games40% · 58 games
Phantom AssassinSatanic
Phantom Assassin
Timbersaw
TimbersawNo!ob
56% · 146 games56% · 147 games
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
Monkey King
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSumaiL
52% · 63 games51% · 98 games
EnigmaDM
Enigma
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterOmaR
38% · 38 games46% · 204 games
Morphling9Class
Morphling
Io
IoGH
49% · 47 games43% · 26 games
DazzleDukalis
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct30:30
Nigma Galaxy 34%PARIVISION 66%
The model gave 66% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 46:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingGhost
43% · 255 games53% · 137 games
Templar AssassinSatanic
Templar Assassin
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNo!ob
46% · 122 games52% · 149 games
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
Monkey King
Magnus
MagnusSumaiL
54% · 163 games62% · 129 games
EnigmaDM
Enigma
Pugna
PugnaGH
44% · 144 games46% · 260 games
PhoenixDukalis
Phoenix
Riki
RikiOmaR
57% · 3 games49% · 12 games
Spirit Breaker9Class
Spirit Breaker
Game 3prediction missed30:24
Nigma Galaxy 38%PARIVISION 62%
The model gave 62% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 45:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinGhost
47% · 84 games45% · 202 games
Dragon KnightSatanic
Dragon Knight
Bristleback
BristlebackNo!ob
55% · 220 games48% · 114 games
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
Monkey King
Magnus
MagnusSumaiL
58% · 200 games48% · 207 games
PhoenixDM
Phoenix
Pugna
PugnaGH
49% · 178 games46% · 172 games
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
Riki
RikiOmaR
72% · 13 gameslittle data
Spirit Breaker9Class
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 75%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3