PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ivorywin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team 123loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ivory
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Rupido · 5 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Rubick
Dric~ · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Ken · 4 games
Lion
Dric~ · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 3 games
Team 123
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
470 picks · 599 bans
Muerta
464 picks · 398 bans
Batrider
453 picks · 564 bans
Clockwerk
431 picks · 537 bans
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 780 bans
Tiny
416 picks · 480 bans
Magnus
402 picks · 893 bans
Lion
396 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Team 123
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Ivory
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:17
Ivory 58%Team 123 42%
The model gave 58% on Ivory — the game was taken by Ivory in 39:28.
Game 2prediction correct
Ivory 58%Team 123 42%
The model gave 58% on Ivory — the game was taken by Ivory.
Model check result
Model favoriteIvory · 58%
Series resultIvory 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2