FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTMTeam Mansafwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Mansaf
Crystal Maiden
Nagato · 3 games
Elder Titan
Nagato · 2 games
Marcioften banned
islA · 2 games
Muerta
islA · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
islA · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
islA · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
islA · 1 game
Pugnaoften banned
Nagato · 1 game
Winners
Elder Titan
Gaga · 1 game
Lich
Gaga · 1 game
Ogre Magi
Gaga · 1 game
Warlock
Gaga · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
470 picks · 598 bans
Muerta
464 picks · 398 bans
Batrider
453 picks · 564 bans
Clockwerk
431 picks · 537 bans
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 779 bans
Tiny
416 picks · 480 bans
Magnus
402 picks · 891 bans
Lion
396 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Winners
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Mansaf
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:41
Team Mansaf 59%Winners 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Mansaf — the game was taken by Team Mansaf in 40:49.
Game 2prediction correct16:42
Team Mansaf 59%Winners 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Mansaf — the game was taken by Team Mansaf in 25:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Mansaf · 59%
Series resultTeam Mansaf 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2