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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Moodeng Warriorswin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Execrationloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Moodeng Warriors

No games played over 6 months.

Execration

Marci
Marcioften banned
Tino- · 11 games
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 9 games
33%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 9 games
89%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Tino- · 9 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 8 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Shanks · 6 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Shanks · 6 games
17%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
470 picks · 597 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
464 picks · 398 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
453 picks · 564 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
431 picks · 536 bans
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 779 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
416 picks · 478 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
402 picks · 890 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
396 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:27
Moodeng Warriors 42%Execration 58%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 40:15.
Game 2prediction missed9:36
Moodeng Warriors 42%Execration 58%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Moodeng Warriors in 46:10.
Game 3prediction missed
Moodeng Warriors 42%Execration 58%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Moodeng Warriors.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 58%
Series resultMoodeng Warriors 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3