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Asian Dragon Series: Continental Collision · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The MongolZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 15 games
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 15 games
47%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 15 games
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 13 games
23%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
xNova · 11 games
36%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nine · 11 games
55%

The MongolZ

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 10 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Wonder'boy · 8 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 7 games
29%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 7 games
29%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hishge · 6 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
JG · 5 games
20%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
60%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Bob · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
470 picks · 596 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
463 picks · 398 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
453 picks · 562 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
430 picks · 535 bans
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 779 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
416 picks · 478 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
402 picks · 888 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
396 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 41%
Hero pool strength50% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:37
OG 69%The MongolZ 31%
The model gave 69% on OG — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 39:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingNine
52% · 148 games46% · 90 games
LinaBob
Lina
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCeb
52% · 99 games51% · 158 games
DoomJG
Doom
Lifestealer
Lifestealer23savage
49% · 77 games47% · 261 game
ClockwerkDJ
Clockwerk
Chen
ChenxNova
60% · 88 games
Marci
MarciDaze
47% · 97 games
Game 2prediction missed21:31
OG 69%The MongolZ 31%
The model gave 69% on OG — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 46:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight23savage
59% · 220 games51% · 128 games
LinaBob
Lina
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNine
52% · 213 games48% · 388 games
PangolierJG
Pangolier
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCeb
54% · 127 games47% · 240 games
MuertaDJ
Muerta
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanDaze
42% · 43 games
Pugna
PugnaxNova
51% · 153 games
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 81%
Series resultThe MongolZ 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2