FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTTToLight Teamloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SSpikywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ToLight Team
No games played over 6 months.
Spiky
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
471 picks · 593 bans
Muerta
463 picks · 398 bans
Batrider
454 picks · 560 bans
Clockwerk
430 picks · 534 bans
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 777 bans
Tiny
416 picks · 477 bans
Magnus
402 picks · 886 bans
Lion
396 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% ToLight Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Spiky
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
ToLight Team 40%Spiky 60%
The model gave 60% on Spiky — the game was taken by Spiky.
Game 2prediction correct
ToLight Team 40%Spiky 60%
The model gave 60% on Spiky — the game was taken by Spiky.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpiky · 60%
Series resultSpiky 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2