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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4Pirateswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 10 games
30%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Shishak · 10 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Miyaoo · 8 games
25%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 8 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Shishak · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
antoha · 7 games
43%
Lion
Lion
Shishak · 7 games
14%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
monodrama · 7 games
14%

4Pirates

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 14 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 14 games
36%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
54%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
58%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 11 games
55%
Lion
Lionsignature
ariel · 10 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 10 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
470 picks · 589 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
463 picks · 398 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
450 picks · 560 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
429 picks · 534 bans
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
418 picks · 776 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
416 picks · 472 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
400 picks · 881 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
396 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 44%
Hero pool strength57% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total63% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:15
Nemiga Gaming 37%4Pirates 63%
The model gave 63% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 31:40.
Game 2prediction correct35:13
Nemiga Gaming 37%4Pirates 63%
The model gave 63% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 34:10.
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 63%
Series result4Pirates 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2